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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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